Black Friday eCommerce Sales - from $2B to $11.7B in 2025

We all have that one Black Friday memory, right? 

Maybe it's your mom dragging you out at 4 AM to snag a $200 TV. 

Maybe it's you, three years ago, refreshing Amazon at midnight in your pajamas. 

Or maybe you're sitting there right now thinking, "Wait, is Black Friday even still a thing?"

Think about it. 

When was the last time you actually saw those news clips of people trampling each other for a discounted Xbox? 

When did you stop getting those "DOORS OPEN AT 5 AM" emails and start getting "Early access starts NOW (but also the sale runs until December)"?

The whole thing transformed right under our noses, and most of us didn't even notice when it happened.

So here's what we're going to do.

We're going to trace this thing from where it started—actual Black Friday, one day, chaos in the aisles—to whatever this is now in 2025. 

Because somewhere along the way, Black Friday stopped being a day and became... a vibe? 

A month? An app notification you swipe away?

Let's dig in.

The Origins: Where Black Friday Started

Okay, so first things first—Black Friday wasn't always about deals.

The term actually started in Philadelphia in the 1960s. And get this: it wasn't retailers who coined it. It was the cops. 

The day after Thanksgiving, the entire city would flood with shoppers and tourists coming in for the Army-Navy football game. 

Traffic nightmares. Shoplifting spikes. Chaos everywhere. 

The police called it "Black Friday" because, well, it was hell.

Not exactly the festive origin story retailers want you thinking about while you're adding stuff to your cart, right?

But here's where it gets interesting. Retailers hated that name at first. 

They tried to rebrand it as "Big Friday" in the '60s. 

Didn't stick. 

So instead, they did something clever—they flipped the narrative. 

Started saying "Black Friday" was when stores finally went "into the black" (profitable) for the year after operating "in the red" (at a loss).

Genius marketing move, honestly. Turn a negative association into a positive one.

By the 1980s and '90s, Black Friday became this unofficial kickoff to holiday shopping. 

Stores would open early—like 6 AM early, which seemed insane at the time. 

They'd offer legitimate doorbuster deals. Limited quantity stuff. First come, first served. 

And people? People showed up.

We're talking sales that were actually significant back then. 30%, 40%, sometimes 50% off big-ticket items. 

None of this "save 15% with code FRIDAY15" stuff you see now where the price is basically the same as it was two weeks ago.

The energy was different too. 

It was an event. Families made plans around it. 

You'd map out your route—hit Target first, then Best Buy, then the mall. 

There was strategy involved. Adrenaline.

And the numbers? In 1992, Black Friday sales hit around $4 billion. 

Sounds cute now, but that was real money back then. Stores were making 20-30% of their annual revenue in that one weekend.

So yeah, Black Friday started as organized chaos. One day. Real deals. Actual scarcity.

Keep that image in your head, because everything's about to change.

Black Friday eCommerce Sales Over Time

Alright, let's talk numbers. Because this is where things get real interesting.

We've got solid data on online Black Friday sales going back to 2015, and honestly? Just looking at this progression is kind of mind-blowing.

Here's what we know for sure:

Now, before your brain goes "okay cool, line goes up"—let's actually think about what we're looking at here.

First off, 2016 was a landmark year. 

It was the first time ever that a single day generated over a billion dollars in online sales from mobile devices alone. $1.2 billion from phones and tablets. 

That was 36% of the total $3.34 billion.

More than a third of people were buying Black Friday deals while probably sitting on their couch, lying in bed, or—let's be honest—hiding from family at Thanksgiving dinner.

Then look at what happens from 2016 to 2017. We jump from $3.34 billion to $5 billion. That's a 50% increase in one year. 

That's not normal growth. That's a fundamental shift in behavior.

In 2018, Black Friday was the first day in history to see more than $2 billion in sales stemming from smartphones, with 33.5% of e-commerce sales coming from mobile devices.

2017 to 2019? Steady climb. 

We're adding $1-1.5 billion each year.

E-commerce is eating the world, people are getting more comfortable buying big purchases online, retailers are getting better at this whole online thing. Makes sense.

Then 2020 hits. And we leap from $7.4 billion to $9 billion.

We all know why—pandemic, stores closed or limited capacity, everyone stuck at home clicking "add to cart" instead of wrestling someone for a TV at Walmart.

But here's the thing that's actually weird: 2021 drops.

Did you catch that? 2021 went DOWN to $8.92 billion. 

Stores reopened, vaccines rolled out, and some people clearly went, "You know what? I actually missed the chaos. I'm going back."

It's like we collectively remembered that Black Friday used to be a physical experience and at least some folks wanted that back.

Then 2022, 2023, 2024—we're climbing again, but slower. 

More measured. We're adding $200-900 million per year instead of those billion-dollar leaps.

What About 2025?

Adobe is projecting that Black Friday 2025 will hit $11.7 billion in online sales—an 8.3% increase over 2024.

On the surface, that sounds solid. Almost a billion dollars more. Growth is growth, right?

But here's what's interesting: we're settling into this 8-10% growth pattern. 

Compare that to 2017's 50% jump or even the 20%+ growth we saw through 2020. We've gone from explosive growth to... steady.

This isn't bad news, necessarily. It might just mean we've hit a new normal. Online Black Friday has matured. It's not a novelty anymore—it's just how a huge chunk of people shop.

Or maybe—and stay with me here—the growth is slowing because Black Friday itself is becoming less concentrated, less special, less urgent.

So what's happening here?

Here's the thing: we're calling these "Black Friday" sales, but are we even measuring Black Friday anymore?

When Black Friday Became Black November

Because here's what nobody's really saying out loud—Black Friday isn't a day anymore. It's barely even a weekend.

Retailers started this arms race years ago. First it was "who can open earliest on Friday?" 

Then it became "let's open on Thanksgiving night." Stores were literally welcoming shoppers at 8 PM on Thursday, right after people finished their turkey.

Everyone wanted to win the race to get people through their doors first. Black Friday stretched into a five-day event—Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. They even gave it a cute name: "Cyber Five."

But then something shifted.

Retailers noticed people were shopping earlier. Like, way earlier. 

NRF surveys started showing that half—sometimes over half—of holiday shoppers were taking advantage of "Black Friday" deals before Thanksgiving even happened.

Why? 

Because people wanted to spread out their spending. 

Nobody wants that massive credit card bill hitting in January. 

So shoppers started looking for deals in early November, and retailers responded by... offering deals in early November.

Now we've got "Black November."

Think about your inbox right now. 

When did you start getting "Black Friday Preview!" and "Early Access Black Friday Deals!" emails? 

First week of November? End of October?

Retailers aren't just competing with each other anymore—they're competing with the entire month. 

So instead of one massive storewide sale on one day, they're doing rotating category sales. "This week: electronics. Next week: home goods. Week after that: fashion."

It keeps you checking back. Keeps you engaged. Keeps you wondering if the real deal is coming later or if you should buy now.

So here's the question nobody's asking:

When we say online Black Friday sales hit $10.8 billion in 2024... what are we actually measuring?

Are we measuring one day? The Cyber Five? The whole month of promotions that retailers are calling "Black Friday deals"?

Because if Black Friday has stretched from one day into four weeks of rolling sales, then of course the growth rate is slowing down. 

The spending isn't concentrating on one day anymore—it's spreading out across November.

That $10.8 billion might look impressive, but it's probably cannibalized from sales that used to happen on other days. 

Or maybe it's not even growth at all. 

Maybe it's just reshuffling when people were going to buy stuff anyway plus inflation.

The numbers are going up, but Black Friday as a concept? That might actually be shrinking.

Wild, right?

Accounting for Black Friday

Okay, so we've talked about what Black Friday looks like from the shopper's perspective and the industry's perspective. 

But if you're actually running an ecommerce business? 

This whole "Black Friday is now Black November" thing creates a massive headache for your accounting.

It's Messy

Now you've got sales trickling in starting November 1st (or earlier, let's be honest). 

Some customers are using "early access" codes. Others are waiting for the "real" Black Friday deals. 

You're running different promotions on different product categories across different weeks.

So when do you actually recognize that revenue? 

When someone places an order during your "Black Friday Preview Week"? When they use a discount code that says "BLACKFRIDAY25" on November 10th?

Cash Flow Gets Complicated

When you're doing steady sales throughout November instead of one massive spike, your cash flow patterns change. 

You're not getting that one huge deposit that used to carry you through the holiday season. 

Instead, you've got rolling deposits that are higher than normal but not dramatically higher.

Is that better or worse? Depends on your business model.

If you ramped up inventory specifically for Black Friday, that old model where you got a massive cash injection in one weekend was actually helpful. 

You could immediately start paying down your suppliers, restocking for Cyber Monday and December, covering your increased ad spend.

Now you're floating that inventory cost across multiple weeks while revenue trickles in. Your working capital requirements might actually be higher even though your total revenue is up.

What About Your Margins?

This is the painful question: are you actually making more money, or are you just doing more volume at lower margins?

When Black Friday was concentrated, you could afford to take a hit on margins for one day because you knew exactly what you were getting into. 

Loss leaders made sense. Doorbuster deals made sense. 

You'd sacrifice margin for volume and customer acquisition, but it was temporary and strategic.

But if you're running promotions for four weeks straight? 

Your margin compression isn't a one-day event anymore—it's eating into your entire month. Maybe your whole quarter.

You need to be tracking:

• Average order value across the entire November period vs. baseline
• Margin by product category and by week
• Customer acquisition cost (because you're probably running ads the entire month now)
• Lifetime value of customers acquired during "Black November" vs. traditional Black Friday

The Forecasting Nightmare

Try explaining to your CFO or your investors what "Black Friday performance" even means anymore.

"Well, we hit $X in Black Friday sales, but that includes November 1-30, and some of those customers used codes that said Black Friday but the sale was technically our Cyber Week promotion, and we're still processing returns from early November purchases, so our net revenue won't be finalized until mid-December..."

You see the problem. But hey, a fractional CFO understands this paradigm. 

The benchmarks are breaking down. 

You can't easily compare your performance to last year because the definition of "Black Friday" keeps shifting. 

Industry reports are measuring different things. Some track the single day, some track the five-day period, some track the whole month.

How are you supposed to know if you're actually doing well?

What eCommerce Businesses Need to Do

If you're running an online store, here's what you actually need from an accounting perspective:

1. Redefine your periods. Stop trying to isolate "Black Friday" and start treating November 1 - November 30 as a single promotional period. Track it as a whole, then break down performance by week.
2. Get granular with your data. You need to know margin by product, by category, by promotion type, by week. The aggregate numbers will lie to you.
3. Plan for longer cash cycles. Don't expect that big cash injection anymore. Model out your cash flow assuming steady elevated sales across four weeks, not a spike.
4. Track cohort behavior. Are customers you acquire in early November different from late November customers? Do they return products at different rates? Do they come back and buy again? This matters for your real profitability.
5. Build in flexibility. Your old "Black Friday playbook" probably doesn't work anymore. You need systems that can handle rolling promotions, dynamic pricing, and constantly shifting marketing spend.

The bottom line? Black Friday used to be a sprint. Now it's a month-long marathon, and your accounting systems need to reflect that reality.

Because the last thing you want is to look at your year-end numbers and realize you worked your ass off all November for margins that barely moved the needle.

Need Help Making Sense of Your Numbers?

Look, if you're reading this and thinking "yeah, my books are a mess and I have no idea if Black Friday actually made me money"—you're not alone. 

Most ecommerce business owners are too busy running promotions and fulfilling orders to figure out what their real margins are. 

That's literally what we do. 

We help online stores get clarity on their numbers so you actually know whether all that hustle is paying off. 

If you want someone to untangle your Black Friday accounting and show you what's really happening with your business, let's talk. 

No pressure, just real conversation about your numbers.